Unlisted Stocks Have ₹150 Lakh Crore Potential, India’s Market Cap Can Double in 4 Years: Raamdeo Agrawal

In a bold and optimistic projection, ace investor and Motilal Oswal Financial Services Chairman Raamdeo Agrawal has stated that India’s unlisted companies hold the potential to unlock ₹150 lakh crore in market value, possibly doubling the country’s total market capitalisation in the next four years. Agrawal, known for his long-term bullish stance on the Indian economy, emphasized that the next big wealth creation cycle will emerge from India’s vast pool of unlisted and emerging businesses waiting to be discovered and scaled through public listings.

This statement comes at a time when India’s benchmark indices are already at all-time highs, and the country’s total listed market cap crossed ₹425 lakh crore in 2025, making it one of the top five stock markets globally by value. Agrawal’s comments reflect growing optimism around the deepening of India’s capital markets and the rise of new-age, tech-driven, and SME enterprises poised for future listings.

Unlisted Companies: India’s Hidden Giants

According to Agrawal, India’s economic engine is now firing from all cylinders—traditional sectors like manufacturing, infrastructure, BFSI, and FMCG, along with sunrise sectors like AI, electric vehicles, deep tech, clean energy, and fintech. He estimated that over 1,000 high-growth unlisted companies are ready or nearly ready for a public market debut over the next few years.

These firms, he noted, are currently valued at modest levels due to lack of liquidity and visibility. However, once they hit the capital markets and become part of the organized economy, their valuations could increase significantly, unlocking massive wealth for early investors, promoters, and the broader public.

This estimate, if realized, could add ₹150 lakh crore to India’s market capitalization, pushing the total valuation towards ₹600-650 lakh crore by 2029.

India’s Current Market Cap Trajectory

India’s stock markets have seen a spectacular run in recent years, fueled by strong earnings growth, digital adoption, global capital flows, and retail participation. From ₹145 lakh crore in 2020 to over ₹425 lakh crore in 2025, India has added nearly ₹280 lakh crore in five years.

If the unlisted space starts contributing via large-scale IPOs, mergers, SPAC listings, and SME expansions, India could surpass the ₹800 lakh crore mark by the end of the decade, believes Agrawal.

Factors Fueling the Unlisted Boom

Agrawal highlighted several key drivers that are accelerating the transition of India’s unlisted companies into large, investible public entities:

1. Start-up Maturity Curve

Startups founded post-2010 have matured into viable, revenue-generating, and often profitable businesses. Many of them are planning IPOs over the next 3-4 years, including unicorns in fintech, edtech, D2C, and logistics.

2. PLI Scheme & Domestic Manufacturing

Government initiatives like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme are formalizing previously unorganized sectors, thereby encouraging them to scale and raise capital from markets.

3. Retail & Institutional Appetite

Retail participation has grown by over 250% in the last five years, while mutual fund SIPs have hit ₹20,000 crore monthly. This sustained capital inflow supports newer and riskier listings.

4. Regulatory Support for SME IPOs

SEBI has eased norms for small and medium enterprises to list, helping regional and niche businesses enter capital markets.

5. Digital Infrastructure and Fintech Penetration

IndiaStack, UPI, GST, and DigiLocker have made it easier for companies to operate formally, scale nationally, and present themselves as credible IPO candidates.

Key Sectors Expected to Lead the Next IPO Wave

This pipeline could potentially be larger than the entire IPO roster of the past decade, especially if favorable market conditions continue and foreign capital inflows remain steady.

From Private to Public: A New Wealth Creation Cycle

Agrawal believes that India is now at the cusp of its third big wealth creation cycle after:

1. The 1990s Liberalization Boom
2. The IT & Infra Growth of the 2000s

The third wave, according to him, will come from digitally-native businesses, clean energy, smart manufacturing, and formalized SMEs. These sectors are asset-light but scalable, enabling rapid margin expansion and wealth generation.

Investors who identify quality unlisted businesses through pre-IPO platforms, AIFs, or early-stage funds could see multi-bagger returns, especially in 5–7 year cycles.

Challenges to Watch

While the outlook remains bullish, Agrawal cautioned against unbridled optimism. Some risks to this ₹150 lakh crore potential include:

• Overvaluation of start-ups without stable cash flows
• Liquidity risks in unlisted shares before listing
• Regulatory bottlenecks or delays in approval processes
• Weak governance standards in privately-held companies
• Geo-political tensions affecting FII inflows

He emphasized the importance of due diligence, governance, and business scalability while investing in unlisted companies.

Market Experts Echo Sentiment

Several fund managers and private equity investors echoed Agrawal’s outlook, stating that India’s entrepreneurial energy, capital access, and regulatory reforms are creating a fertile environment for the next 1,000 unicorns.

Investors like Tiger Global, Peak XV (formerly Sequoia), and SoftBank are recalibrating their India bets to align with IPO-readiness and profitability rather than just GMV and user growth.

What Should Retail Investors Do?

• Participate in high-quality IPOs from profitable, scalable businesses
• Look at regulated platforms for unlisted share investment with verified due diligence
• Use mutual funds and AIFs that focus on private equity or pre-IPO opportunities
• Avoid herd mentality—focus on fundamentals, not just hype
• Understand the illiquidity risks and longer investment horizon of unlisted investments

Conclusion

Raamdeo Agrawal’s ₹150 lakh crore valuation projection for India’s unlisted space may sound ambitious, but it’s rooted in visible ground realities. With robust policy support, entrepreneurial zeal, and rising investor appetite, India’s capital markets are poised for an unprecedented expansion in breadth and depth.

The transformation of unlisted companies into wealth creators for public shareholders could be the defining economic story of the next four years.

Disclaimer:

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult certified financial advisors before making any investment decisions related to unlisted or IPO-bound companies. Market investments are subject to risks and past performance is not indicative of future returns.