Global brokerage firm JP Morgan has initiated coverage on India’s logistics sector with a bullish outlook, identifying two standout stocks—Aegis Logistics Ltd and Delhivery Ltd—as top investment picks. The firm sees strong upside potential of up to 21% in these stocks, driven by sectoral reforms, rising demand, and operational efficiencies. The recommendation comes amid a broader transformation in India’s logistics landscape, fueled by e-commerce growth, automation, and GST-related tailwinds.
JP Morgan’s report highlights the rapid expansion of both business-to-consumer (B2C) and business-to-business (B2B) express logistics, alongside opportunities in oil and gas transportation. The brokerage expects India’s e-commerce logistics market to grow at a CAGR of 16% through FY30, with Tier II and III cities playing a pivotal role.
Top 2 Logistics Stocks Recommended by JP Morgan
| Company Name | Rating | Target Price (₹) | Current Price (₹) | Upside Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aegis Logistics Ltd | Overweight | ₹895 | ₹819.25 | ~12% |
| Delhivery Ltd | Overweight | ₹575 | ₹481 | ~21% |
These stocks have been selected based on their strategic positioning, financial strength, and ability to capitalize on emerging trends in the logistics ecosystem.
Aegis Logistics Ltd: Riding the LPG Wave
Aegis Logistics, with a market capitalization of ₹28,024 crore, has been a consistent performer in the oil and gas logistics space. JP Morgan believes the company’s potential in LPG import expansion remains underappreciated by the market. The firm’s overweight rating is backed by strong fundamentals and high entry barriers.
Key Growth Drivers:
- Strategic partnerships with marquee customers
- Robust return on capital employed (ROCE)
- Ongoing port capacity expansion
- High entry barriers in oil and gas logistics
India’s LPG imports are projected to rise by 10 million tonnes by FY30, growing at an 8% CAGR. Aegis is well-positioned to benefit from this surge, especially as domestic production remains flat while demand increases across household and industrial segments.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | ₹28,024 crore |
| Target Price | ₹895 |
| ROCE | High (exact figure undisclosed) |
| FY25–28E EPS Growth | ~16% |
JP Morgan sees Aegis as a multi-year growth story, with its infrastructure and customer base providing a solid foundation for continued re-rating.
Delhivery Ltd: Tech-Driven Logistics Leader
Delhivery, India’s largest fully integrated logistics provider, has a market cap of ₹35,443 crore. The company’s stock rose 2% to ₹481 following JP Morgan’s coverage initiation. The brokerage has set a target price of ₹575, implying a 21% upside.
Key Growth Catalysts:
- Strong EBITDA growth forecast (58% CAGR FY25–28)
- Economies of scale and cost optimization
- GST-related tailwinds
- Transition from capex-heavy phase to free cash flow generation
Delhivery’s tech investments have created a strong moat, enabling it to navigate competitive headwinds and improve execution. The company’s net cash position also provides room for future M&A activity.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | ₹35,443 crore |
| Target Price | ₹575 |
| EBITDA CAGR (FY25–28E) | 58% |
| Net Cash Position | Robust |
JP Morgan notes that Delhivery’s recent volume hit due to a major e-commerce client’s shift to captive sourcing has already been factored into projections. The company is now focused on driving profitability and expanding its service offerings.
Sector Outlook: Logistics Set for Structural Upside
JP Morgan’s bullish stance on logistics stems from multiple macro and micro factors reshaping the industry:
| Growth Driver | Impact |
|---|---|
| E-commerce Expansion | Boosts B2C logistics demand |
| GST Reforms | Enhances operational efficiency |
| Automation & Tech Adoption | Reduces labor dependency |
| Infrastructure Development | Improves last-mile connectivity |
| Rising Consumption in Tier II/III Cities | Expands delivery footprint |
The brokerage expects India’s logistics sector to benefit from structural reforms and digital transformation, making it a compelling investment theme for the next decade.
Comparative Snapshot: Logistics Stocks Under JP Morgan Coverage
| Company Name | Rating | Target Price (₹) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aegis Logistics Ltd | Overweight | ₹895 | Oil & gas logistics leader |
| Delhivery Ltd | Overweight | ₹575 | Tech-driven B2C/B2B logistics |
| TCI Express Ltd | Neutral | ₹750 | Facing industry headwinds |
| Container Corp (Concor) | Neutral | ₹590 | Balanced risk-reward |
While Aegis and Delhivery are JP Morgan’s top picks, other players like Concor and TCI Express have received neutral ratings due to evolving industry dynamics and competitive pressures.
Conclusion: Strategic Picks for Long-Term Gains
JP Morgan’s recommendation of Aegis Logistics and Delhivery underscores the evolving nature of India’s logistics sector. With strong fundamentals, sectoral tailwinds, and strategic positioning, both companies offer compelling upside potential—12% for Aegis and 21% for Delhivery.
Investors looking to capitalize on India’s consumption boom, digital transformation, and infrastructure push may find these stocks well-aligned with long-term growth themes.
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Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available brokerage reports, verified market data, and expert commentary. It is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All figures and projections are subject to change based on market conditions and company performance.
