India’s sugar mills are expected to miss their government-mandated export quota for the 2024–25 season, shipping only around 775,000 metric tons against the allocated 1 million tons. The shortfall is attributed to a surge in global sugar supplies from Brazil, which has driven international prices to a four-year low, making Indian shipments less competitive in key markets across Asia and the Middle East.
The export season, which officially ends on September 30, 2025, saw a flurry of deals early on. However, momentum slowed significantly in recent months as Brazilian sugar began trading nearly $25 cheaper per ton than Indian offerings. With only a handful of contracts signed in the last few weeks, mills are unlikely to secure more than 25,000 tons in additional deals before the deadline.
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India’s Sugar Export Performance: 2024–25 Season
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Government Export Quota | 1 million tons |
| Total Contracted Exports | ~750,000 tons |
| Actual Shipments (as of Sep 19) | ~720,000 tons |
| Projected Final Shipments | ~775,000 tons |
| Shortfall from Quota | ~225,000 tons |
The data reflects a significant gap between the quota and actual exports, raising concerns about surplus stock management and domestic price stability.
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Key Factors Behind Export Shortfall
| Factor | Impact |
|---|---|
| Brazilian Oversupply | Lower global prices, reduced Indian competitiveness |
| Freight Cost Advantage Eroded | Brazil’s pricing offset India’s regional freight edge |
| Domestic Price Surge | Mills prefer selling locally due to higher margins |
| Global Sugar Futures Decline | Prices hit lowest in over four years |
| Limited Late-Season Deals | Only a few contracts signed in September |
Traditionally, Indian sugar has held an edge in Asian markets due to lower freight costs, but recent price dynamics have reversed that advantage.
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India’s Sugar Export Landscape: Past vs Present
| Season | Export Volume (Million Tons) | Global Rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2018–19 | 3.8 | #2 |
| 2019–20 | 5.9 | #2 |
| 2020–21 | 7.2 | #2 |
| 2021–22 | 11.2 | #2 |
| 2022–23 | 6.8 | #2 |
| 2024–25 | ~0.775 | Likely #4–5 |
India was the world’s second-largest sugar exporter for five consecutive years until 2022–23, but the current season marks a sharp decline in overseas shipments.
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Top Export Destinations for Indian Sugar
| Country | Share of Exports |
|---|---|
| Bangladesh | 22% |
| Indonesia | 18% |
| Sri Lanka | 15% |
| UAE | 12% |
| Afghanistan | 10% |
These markets have increasingly turned to Brazilian suppliers due to more favorable pricing, further impacting India’s export volumes.
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Domestic Market Dynamics
| Indicator | Status |
|---|---|
| Domestic Sugar Prices | Up 8% YoY |
| Mill Profitability | Higher in local sales |
| Inventory Levels | Rising due to export shortfall |
| Government Intervention | Likely in new season |
| Farmer Payments | Stable due to local demand |
With domestic prices climbing above global benchmarks, mills have opted to sell more within India, ensuring better returns and timely payments to sugarcane farmers.
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Outlook for 2025–26 Season
| Forecast Metric | Projection |
|---|---|
| Sugarcane Output | Higher due to strong monsoon |
| Export Quota (Expected) | Likely to be revised upward |
| Mill Request for Carryover | ~225,000 tons from current quota |
| Global Price Recovery | Uncertain, depends on Brazil and futures market |
| Policy Review | Scheduled for October 2025 |
Industry officials have indicated that mills may request the government to allow the remaining quota to be carried forward into the new season starting October 1.
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Conclusion: India’s Sugar Export Shortfall Signals Shift in Global Trade Dynamics
The failure to meet the 1 million-ton export quota underscores the challenges Indian sugar mills face in a volatile global market dominated by Brazilian supply. While domestic sales have cushioned the financial impact, the shortfall raises strategic questions about India’s role in global sugar trade and the need for more adaptive export policies.
As the new season approaches, all eyes will be on the government’s response—whether it allows carryover exports, revises quotas, or introduces new incentives to maintain India’s competitiveness. For now, the 775,000-ton shipment marks a sobering end to a season that began with high hopes but ended with missed targets.
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Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available trade data, government statements, and industry reports. It is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, agricultural, or policy advice. All figures are subject to revision based on final export data and regulatory updates.
